Current Recommendations

Model / Changes / Holdings As of 2/19/19

Tactical Fixed Income
Most recent allocation changes as of 2/4/2019
Holdings: BAB, CWB, IEF, PGX, VCIT

+0.5% wk +1.5% ytd

Global Multi-Asset Income
Most recent allocation changes as of 2/4/2019
Holdings: DEM, EMB, GLDI, VNQ, YYY

+0.7% wk +2.4% ytd
Factor Rotation
Sell iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol Emerging Markets ETF (EEMV)
Buy Global X Guru ETF (GURU)
Holdings: FPX, FV, GURU, Cash (1%)
+1.7% wk +5.5% ytd
Sector Rotation
Sell Vanguard Global ex-US Real Estate ETF (VNQI)
Buy iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA)
Holdings: BBH, FDN, ITA, ITB
+2.6% wk +6.0% ytd
International Rotation
Sell iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF (EIDO)
Buy iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ)
Holdings: EPHE, EPP, EWZ, IFV, ILF
-0.1% wk +2.6% wk
Note: New recommendations recorded at the closing price on the day recommendation is made. You may place trades as soon as you receive this update. 

Commentary
Trade Negotiations Continue

As the March 1 deadline for China to commit to broad economic changes approaches, much is still to be determined concerning the trade relationship between the country and the United States. If China doesn’t give the U.S. a firm decision to commit to changes by then, the U.S. has threatened to increase current tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports from 10% to 25%. The Wall Street Journal reports that people briefed on the matter have said that there are still large disagreements concerning trade between the two nations, indicating great uncertainty about China’s ability to meet the deadline.

In North America, progress has been made on renegotiating NAFTA, with a new U.S.-Mexico-Canada agreement being prepared for passage through Congress. Passage of the new agreement may be difficult, as it appears lawmakers from both major parties have changes they would like to see made to the agreement itself or to the president’s overall trade policy.

Formal trade talks with Japan and the European Union may soon commence as well after the U.S. threatened car tariffs last year. Bloomberg reports that Japan does not believe the U.S. will apply higher tariffs on Japanese cars and auto parts as long as the two nations continue trade negotiations. In 2018, cars and auto parts made up 20% of Japan’s exports. The EU has said that it is prepared to place its own retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods if the U.S. places higher tariffs on EU cars and auto parts. After conducting trade negotiations, the U.S. could potentially walk away with bilateral trade agreements with both Japan and the EU.

What the U.S. desires to obtain from each of these negotiations isn’t exactly clear. President Trump’s goal may be to institute tariffs in order to protect domestic industries. On the other hand, the tariffs that have been levied and threatened could be a tool to obtain trade concessions from trading partners. It won’t be evident what the U.S. will gain from each round of negotiations until they have concluded.

Tactical Fixed Income rose 0.5% last week. The only holding that declined was the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF), which fell 0.16%. The best-performing holding was the SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible Securities ETF (CWB), which gained 1.36%. There were no changes to the strategy this week.

Global Multi-Asset Income increased by 0.7% last week. The only holding that declined was the WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend ETF (DEM), which fell 0.48%. The best-performing holding in the strategy was the YieldShares High Income ETF (YYY), which gained 1.79%. There were no changes to the strategy this week.

Factor Rotation rose 1.7% last week. The only holding that declined was the iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol Emerging Markets ETF (EEMV), which fell 0.56%. The best-performing holding was the First Trust Dorsey Wright Focus 5 ETF (FV), which gained 2.93%. This week, the strategy sold out of the iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol Emerging Markets ETF (EEMV) and bought the Global X Guru ETF (GURU).

Sector Rotation was the best-performing strategy last week with a gain of 2.6%. The only holding that declined was the Vanguard Global ex-US Real Estate ETF (VNQI), which fell 0.12%. The best-performing holding was the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB), which gained 4.59%. This week, the strategy sold out of the Vanguard Global ex-US Real Estate ETF (VNQI) and bought the iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA).

International Rotation was the worst performer of the week, declining 0.1%. The holding with the worst performance was the iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF (EIDO), which fell 3.42%. The best-performing holding was the iShares Latin America 40 ETF (ILF), which gained 2.77%. This week, the strategy sold out of the iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF (EIDO) and bought the iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ).

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