Current Recommendations

Model / Changes / Holdings As of 10/7/19
Tactical Fixed Income
Most recent allocation changes as of 9/16/2019
Holdings: BAB, BIV, BND, SRLN, VCIT
+0.8% wk +7.4% ytd
Global Multi-Asset Income
Most recent allocation changes as of 9/16/2019
Holdings: GLDI, SDY, SPHD, USMV, VNQ
-0.4% wk +2.7% ytd
Factor Rotation
Most recent allocation changes as of 9/16/2019
Holdings: ALFA, MOAT, VLUE, Cash (1%)
-0.7% wk +1.4% ytd
Sector Rotation
Most recent allocation changes as of 9/30/2019
Holdings: ICF, ITB, XLU, XSD
+1.3% wk +0.8% ytd
International Rotation
Sell Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR) (20%)
Buy iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (TUR) (20%)
Holdings: DXJ, EWN, EWT, GREK, TUR
-0.6% wk -8.1% ytd

 

Note: New recommendations recorded at the closing price on the day recommendation is made. You may place trades as soon as you receive this update. 

Commentary
U.S. Unemployment Rate Drops to 50-Year Low

U.S. unemployment dropped to a 50-year low in September, falling from 3.7% in August to 3.5%. It had been expected to remain at 3.7%. CNBC reports that nonfarm payrolls increased by 136,000, below the expected amount of 145,000. A measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and the underemployed fell to 6.9%, the lowest level for that measure in 19 years.

Average hourly earnings reportedly did not move much and were up 2.9% for the year, reports CNBC. To date, the average monthly jobs increase for 2019 has been 161,000 compared to a monthly average increase of 223,000 for the same period in 2018.

The Wall Street Journal reports that at least some Fed officials were “upbeat on jobs data.” Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester seemed to find September’s unemployment data generally positive, but neither would say what they believe the Fed should do with interest rates at its next meeting. According to the Journal, “markets expect another quarter-percentage-point rate cut at the gathering.”

Tactical Fixed Income rose 0.8% last week. The worst-performing holding was the SPDR Blackstone/GSO Senior Loan ETF (SRLN), which fell 0.37%. The best-performing holding was the Invesco Taxable Municipal Bond ETF (BAB), which rose 1.33%. There were no changes to the strategy this week.

Global Multi-Asset Income fell 0.4% last week. The worst-performing holding was the Invesco S&P 500 High Dividend Low Volatility ETF (SPHD), which fell 1.79%. The best-performing holding was the Credit Suisse X-Links Gold Shares Covered Call ETN (GLDI), which rose 0.48%. There were no changes to the strategy this week.

Factor Rotation fell 0.7% last week. The worst-performing holding was the iShares Edge MSCI USA Value Factor ETF (VLUE), which fell 1.74%. The best-performing holding was the AlphaClone Alternative Alpha ETF (ALFA), which rose 0.07%. There were no changes to the strategy this week.

Sector Rotation rose 1.3% last week. The worst-performing holding was the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU), which rose 0.11%. The best-performing holding was the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB), which rose 1.97%. There were no changes to the strategy this week.

International Rotation fell 0.6% last week. The worst-performing holding was the Global X MSCI Greece ETF (GREK), which fell 4.39%. The best-performing holding was the iShares MSCI Taiwan Caped ETF (EWT), which rose 1.75%. This week, the strategy sold the Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR) and bought the iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (TUR).

 

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