http://www.allstarinvestor.com

Market Recovery Continues
4/09/08

All Star Investor's Weekly E-Newsletter: Invest With An Edge

 

Wednesday, April 9, 2008
 
 

Editor's Corner Investing, Sectors, Styles, International, Heat Map
Market Recovery Continues
Ron Rowland

The second quarter of 2008 is off to a strong start, although many investors are not aware of that fact.  The March statements now being opened reflect the rather dismal performance of the first quarter.  Meanwhile, the second quarter started with a bang.  According to Bloomberg, it was the best second quarter start for the US stock market in 70 years.  Little of that opening burst has been surrendered, and many market segments are building on their gains. 
  
The market had plenty of excuses to sell off this past week, but it didn't.  The employment report was bad, Bernanke acknowledged the possibility of recession, pending home sales fell to a new low, and energy prices continued to rise.  The headlines are bad and getting worse, but the stock market did not respond negatively.
  
The next few weeks will provide the market with additional opportunities to decline as companies reveal their first quarter results.  Most are expected to show a decline in profits.  Given that a recession is now taken for granted, we also expect companies to be overly cautious regarding their outlook for the remainder of the year.
  
Every earnings season contains surprises, and not just because a company reports lower profits.  Investors expect corporate profits to be down.  The surprises will happen when the actual decline does not match the expected decline.  There will be both positive and negative surprises in the weeks ahead, and stocks are likely to react accordingly.
  
High yield bonds had another good week, continuing to rebound from oversold levels.  The Fed's efforts to ease the credit crunch are "greasing the skids."  Credit markets that were nearly frozen are now seeing some transactions take place, but they are still a long way from being out of the woods.  The yield on 10-year Treasury securities is still in the 3.5% neighborhood, while most money market yields have dropped below 3%.

  
Sectors
  
Commodity-oriented sectors resumed their leadership role this week as Materials and Energy reclaimed the top spots in our rankings.  Energy was the top-performing sector of the week, gaining more than 4%.  This morning's EIA report showed continued reduction in oil inventories, causing crude oil to jump to more than $111 per barrel.  The Materials sector benefited from strong performances in steel and chemicals.  Our rankings indicate that four of the major sectors are now in an intermediate-term uptrend, four are still in a downtrend, and two are "undecided".  All sectors improved this week, although Telecommunications and Health Care continued to exhibit the weakest relative strength.
 
Styles 
  
There was a massive change in our style rankings this week as eight of the eleven groups switched from negative to positive intermediate trends.  Two others are now flat, and only one (Micro-Caps) is still indicating a negative trend.  The absolute strength of these new positive trends is not very robust at this time, indicating that they could easily slip back into negative territory.  Still, this is the best reading since last October and should be interpreted as an encouraging sign.
  
  
International
  
All global categories except one are now in intermediate-term uptrends.  The one exception, China, truly is a special case.  China was the best performing global region in 2007, reaching gains of more than 90% at one point before finishing the year up more than 50%.  Strength like that is usually accompanied by high volatility, and high volatility means large downside moves as well.  China declined about 40% from its 2007 peak, and large swings should be expected as it tries to recover.



Note:


The charts above depict both the relative strength and absolute strength of various market sectors, styles, and geographic locations on an intermediate-term basis.  Each grouping is sorted (top to bottom) by relative strength.  The magnitude of the displayed RSM value is a measure of absolute strength, which is our proprietary method of measuring and reporting the intermediate-term strength as an annualized value.
  


"If a battered stock refuses to sink any lower no matter how many negative
articles appear in the papers, that stock is worth a close look." 
James L. Fraser, Contrarian Investor




Pick-of-the-Week
Taiwan: A Proven, Undervalued Producer (EWT)
Brandon Clay


Taiwan, EWT, ETF, International, Stock Pick


Taiwan has faced challenges in the past 60 years.  After the Chinese Civil War ended in 1949, the losing Kuomintang/Nationalist (KMT) government retreated to a newly re-acquired Taiwan.  Japan lost rights to Taiwan after World War II and ceded it back to the Chinese.  The island became the new home of the Republic of China (ROC).  Taiwan has been independent from China ever since.  But there was one problem.  Mainland China has laid claim to Taiwan ever since Chairman Mao's Revolution. 
 
Despite U.S. support, Taiwan always grew in the shadow of a much larger China.  The historic animosity between the two countries has caused strain for decades.  Then something happened.  Last month, on March 22, Taiwan elected KMT candidate, Ma Ying-jeou, to the presidency.  Amid promises for a renewed relationship with China, the new KMT government is looking ahead to brighter markets.  Although Ma won't be boarding a government charter flight to Beijing any time soon, his presidency promises to stand in marked contrast to previous administrations. 
 
This political development stabilizes the region.  At least for the near term, Taiwan will be enjoying fewer threats from across the Taiwan Strait and increased security against a more formidable foe.  This bodes well for economic development.  It should translate into a healthier export market and rejuvenation in the slumping sectors.  Taiwan's industries are positioned for the stability.
 
In the past, Taiwan dominated the financial headlines way before China was the rage on the international scene.  A close relationship with the U.S. helped boost Taiwan's economic standing.  Historic relationships opened markets to Taiwan industry that would have gone to Japan.  Consequently, exports exploded for the island nation.  In 2006 alone, Taiwan shipped $88.6 billion worth of IT hardware.  This year, LCD shipments should be up 30% compared to 2007.  This doesn't even include the growing software industry, accounting for $5.34 billion and the semiconductor business estimated at $37 billion in 2006.
 
These developments have caught the attention of investors.  Jim Rogers, commodities guru, recently bought into Taiwan for the first time in his life.  Others think Taiwan is still underpriced.  Standard & Poor's upgraded Taiwan's sovereign rating outlook from "negative" to "stable".  This year, the Taiwan stock market is up +6.6%.  Compare this to China's slump of -17.3%.  With Taiwan's stock market yielding 4% in dividends, other investors have been moving money to the island nation.  These are good reasons to consider 'the other China'.
 
There are three Taiwan funds U.S. investors can buy: the Taiwan Fund Inc (TWN), the Taiwan Greater China Fund (TFC) and iShares MSCI Taiwan (EWT).  Because the first two are closed-end funds instead of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), lower liquidity and higher fees make associated with such funds make them less desirable than Barclay's iShares ETF offering.  Right now, it is the only Taiwan ETF available. 
 
EWT is a broad-based fund with heavy allocation in tech (55%), financials (16%), and materials (15%).  Its specific exposure to Taiwan's economy make it unique among other Asian ETFs.  EWT's chart shows consolidation after Ma's election.  We think Taiwan is a good place for international allocation, before he takes office in May.  Those challenges from the Mainland may not be over, but the future looks brighter for Taiwan.  To play Taiwan's reemergence on the global stage, go with EWT.
 
All the best.    
 
 
Note:

Keep in mind that the Pick of the Week is usually intended for aggressive investors.  Don't risk money you can't afford to lose.  You will need to decide when (and if) it is time to sell.
  


 If you received this newsletter from a friend, get your own subscription HERE
Get this valuable resource delivered to your inbox every week at no charge.
You can cancel your subscription anytime.
 

All Star Investor     |     About Us     |     Contact Us     |     Archives

 
DISCLOSURE
 
© 2008 AllStarInvestor.com All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. Nothing in this e-mail should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investment advice.  Any investments recommended in this letter should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.  All Star Investor employees, its affiliates, and clients may hold positions in the recommended securities.

Distribution is encouraged.  Please do not alter content. 

Courtesy of: www.AllStarInvestor.com


© 2006-2008 AllStarInvestor.com All Rights Reserved. Reproduction without permission prohibited.