AllStarInvestor.com
Home | Trial Subscription | Contact Us | About Us | Tell a Friend | Search | SUBSCRIBER LOGIN


 Investing Strategies
Updates
Open Positions
ETF Strategy
Fidelity Single Sector
Fidelity Multi-Sector
Rydex Strategy
Equity Trader (Stocks)
 ETF Rankings
Sector ETFs
International ETFs
Style ETFs
Bond ETFs
Leveraged & Inverse
Commodity ETFs
Currency ETFs
IPOs (New ETFs)
Do Not Trade ETFs
 Fund Rankings
Fidelity Select
Fidelity Non-Select
FSS Rankings
Tradable Long
Tradable Lev'd & Inv
Index Benchmarks
 The Basics
Build Your Portfolio
Downloads
Ranking Categories
Tickers with Category
 Help
Our Guarantee
Our Privacy Policy
Our Terms of Use
About Us
 
MarketWatch: Where the Buys Are



Where the buys are:
Five U.S. market sectors ready to ride momentum higher in March

By Jonathan Burton, MarketWatch
Last update: 12:01 a.m. EST March 3, 2008
 
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- March is supposed to come in like a lion, but ferocious January and February are tough cats for stocks to follow. Yet for investors in market sectors with the strongest momentum, March could go out, if not with a roar, then at least with a satisfied snarl.
 
For starters, March tends to be investor-friendly. U.S. stocks have posted gains in March two-thirds of the time since 1945, with an average increase of 1.05%, says Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Standard & Poor's Inc.
"March tends to be O.K., especially because February is so bad," Stovall said. Indeed, February typically gives no love to stock buyers, and is second only to September as the worst-performing month for U.S. markets. 
 
To do better than OK this month, you have to find those pockets of the market that promise above-average returns. Given the uncertainty and volatility swirling around Wall Street, you could hunker down in traditionally defensive areas such as consumer staples and health care.
But that would keep you out of these five investment areas that are gathering steam and stand to be the month's biggest winners:
 
Air, road and rail
 
Shipping is in good shape. The U.S. economy is slowing and may even be in recession, but other parts of the world are trading and spending briskly. Goods and materials get from place to place by land, sea, and air, and while several leading shippers are based in the U.S., their business is worldwide.
S&P's top rankings in the air freight and logistics group, for example, include FedEx Corp. (FDX)  & Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD)
 
In late February, S&P strategists had 12-month price targets of $140 on FedEx, $55 on Expeditors International, and $89 on UPS.
"There are good, global growth opportunities for these companies," Stovall said.
Tom O'Brien, editor of the daily Market Insights newsletter, is also bullish on FedEx and UPS shares. "They want to move higher," he said. As for railroads, he added, "they are going to make a fortune."
Another recommendation: J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT). In addition to its U.S. base, the company operates in Canada and Mexico, and so benefits from the energy and commodity boom propelling those economies.
 
"They transport paper, wood, food, beverages -- that's a nice set up," he said. Hunt Transport "looks to me like it wants to go to $33 or $34" a share, he noted.
 
"You're buying the transports at March 2006 levels," O'Brien added.
Buying the transports is still a controversial call. With the economy weak and oil hitting $100 a barrel, such fuel-dependent companies would seem headed for a bumpy landing. But John Schloegel, co-editor of the All Star Fund Trader newsletter, says it would be a mistake to fight the upward trend for transports. For a diversified play, he suggests an exchange-traded fund, iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average (IYT).
 
"It's showing good strength, so don't try to talk yourself out of it," Schloegel said of the transportation sector. "Maybe three to six months from now, oil is going to come off and the economy is going to be better. Maybe the transports are telling us that things aren't as bad as we think."
 
Agriculture and commodities
As investment themes, agriculture and commodities are not breaking new ground. Shares of companies involved in growing and supplying food and raw materials, along with indexes that track the physical commodities, have surged over the past year.
But purely on a momentum basis, these sectors are still fertile ground.
 
"We just rely on the numbers; we don't do a lot of second-guessing," said Jonathan Buoni, editor of the Fidelity Independent Adviser newsletter. His numbers say that agriculture is a strong area, particularly PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA)
 
PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund, an ETF with exposure to wheat, sugar, corn and soybeans. Agriculture also shows strong momentum on S&P's charts, with giant Archer Daniels Midland Co. (ADM) as a proxy for the group. Fertilizers and agricultural chemicals is another powerful mover, with Monsanto Co. (MON)ranking high.
 
Yet even shorter-term investors should recognize that the recent action in many of these stocks and ETFs has been fast and furious, which could set the stage for a decline.
"They're all going parabolic," Schloegel, the All Star Fund Trader editor, said. His newsletter's model ETF portfolio includes the PowerShares agriculture fund, but Schloegel adds a warning: "You have to be somewhat mindful that you're buying into something that's gone crazy in the last couple of months."



Printer-Friendly Format